Here are three things to ponder about tomorrow’s world. States are becoming at once more assertive and less capable. Newly empowered citizens are becoming more demanding of their political masters. Put the two together and you may have a recipe for resurgent nationalism and conflict.
Last week the National Intelligence Council, the agency that sits atop the US intelligence community, published its quadrennial report on what the world might look like 20 years hence. Launched at a conference hosted by the Washington-based Atlantic Council, “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” is a must read – a treasure trove of well-chosen facts, prescient analysis and strategic insights.
The headlines generated by the assessment focused on its view of US power. The Pax Americana, the period of American ascendancy that began in 1945, was coming to an end, the NIC said, You might say so what? The global power shift is hardly new. But the significance, it seems, is that the US is now admitting it. The word in Washington was that the White House was distinctly nervous in advance of the report’s publication.