Target market: gangsta rappers and the Chinese nouveaux riches. Times have changed for cognac, the spirit that used to be the preserve of old white men. Rémy Cointreau,which released results yesterday, has managed both trends nicely. Sales growth in the Americas was 15 per cent in the first half, but the real star is China, where Rémy’s top-end brands appeal to those who want to show off their wealth. Its Louis XIII brand, which retails at $2,500 a bottle, is selling particularly well. The company has a 60 per cent share of the premium “Extra” segment of the Chinese cognac market.
But like other consumer companies it has been hit by concerns about China – the shares lost a fifth of their value between mid-August and mid-October. Rémy’s cognac sales growth in the second quarter of its financial year was 8 per cent, against 38 per cent in the first. Only quarterly noise or is the Chinese thirst for pricey spirits starting to abate? Rémy’s quarterly numbers tend to show plenty of noise – over the past 12 quarters, cognac sales growth has averaged 20 per cent, but within that the numbers have ranged from a 55 per cent rise to a 10 per cent dip. A single quarter at 8 per cent does not quite make it time to run for the hills. But Bernstein does expect the rate of growth in China to slow, from 25 per cent during the past few years to 15 per cent.
That raises the question whether Rémy’s earnings rating can be sustained. The company is a purer play than others on Chinese demand for spirits, so its shares, at 24 times forecast earnings, enjoy a premium to Diageo and Pernod-Ricardon 18 and 17 respectively. If the news from China gets no worse, Rémy should be able to maintain the gap. But there is little scope for a higher rating and, as the shares’ performance over the autumn shows, plenty of room for a fall if the Chinese decide to drink elsewhere.