China’s economic growth is slowing. Just as important, the government is trying to bring about a change: from a model reliant on investment in infrastructure, construction and exports to one focused on consumption, particularly of services.
This shift will take years. But it is critical for commodities markets. As Dong Tao, analyst at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, puts it: “Getting a massage simply does not use as much steel as building an airport”.
China plays a pivotal role in the global supply and demand balance. The country accounts for as much as half the world’s demand for some commodities, such as iron ore. It has the power to shape almost single-handedly the direction of the commodities supercycle.
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