Whichever way one looks at it, April really was the cruelest month for China’s economy. Industrial production, investment and retail spending were all much weaker than expected. With trade data also showing a sharp deceleration, it is no surprise that China’s premier, Wen Jiabao, has pledged that his government will do more to revive growth.
Optimists say there is no obvious reason to worry about China’s economy. According to the official statistics, in the first quarter of 2012 the economy expanded 8.1 per cent. While marking a slowdown compared with the end of 2011, such figures are the envy of almost every other country in the world.
The problem is that analysts are finding it increasingly hard to take official growth figures seriously. China has a history of manipulating statistics for political reasons and, as the economy slows down, the temptation to conceal the truth could grow even bigger. This is of course self-defeating. Obfuscating data is never a good way to build confidence in an economy, whatever its growth rates.