How many oil industry authorities does it take to call the top of the market? Three, so far. Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, thinks oil at $120 is “unjustified” because supply fears are overdone. Opec says supply constraints are easing. And, weighing in yesterday, the International Energy Agency says that oil market fundamentals are turning as supply moves ahead of demand – though the shift has yet to translate into the price. Of course, one false move from Iran and this emerging consensus is moot. But what if the pundits are right?
需要多少位石油行業權威，才能形成市場見頂的判斷？目前已有三個說話了。沙烏地石油部長阿里•納伊米(Ali Naimi)認爲，油價處於120美元是「不合理的」，因爲人們對供應的擔憂過度。石油輸出國組織(Opec，簡稱歐佩克)稱，供應約束正在緩解。昨日，國際能源署(IEA)稱，石油市場基本面正在發生變化，供應超過需求，不過這一轉變尚未體現到價格上來。當然，伊朗發動錯誤行動，這種新興共識也尚未形成定論。但如果這些權威看法是正確的將會怎樣呢？