Ladies and gentlemen, who would not agree that it is wrong for American billionaires to pay less tax than their hairdressers? (Cheering.) Therefore, as your president, I have decided that it is time to lower the value of each and every one of your stock portfolios. (Stunned silence.)
No politician would dare utter those words. But by proposing to raise taxes on dividends in his 2013 budget, President Barack Obama’s plan would theoretically do just that: lower after-tax equity free cash flows equal lower stock prices, other things being equal.
Which is why, from a shareholder perspective, yesterday’s announcement that the Obama administration also wants to lower the maximum rate of income tax for corporations is financially inconsistent with the dividend idea. Of course, it may not be if the overall tax take rises because of parallel eliminations of deductions. The latter would merely amplify the potential hit to equity valuations.