In traditional terms, the autumn statement could be regarded as neutral. The myriad adjustments to expenditure and revenue were designed to offset each other. But in reality, it is highly restrictive. For the key fiscal aggregates – the current budget deficit, public sector net borrowing and the public sector and government cash requirements – are expected on all definitions to shrink in 2012-2013 by 0.5 to 1 per cent of gross domestic product.
The one acknowledgement of depressed conditions is that George Osborne has added another two years of fiscal tightening to 2016-17, two years after the next election. If the tightening does not happen it will not be due to any easing by the chancellor, but to an even worse than expected growth performance. This is what has happened in the current financial year, when key deficit totals grew rather than shrank. It should be noted that the Office of Budget Responsibility largely blames this on unexpected increases in world commodity and energy prices, at least to date.
It is a sense difficult to argue with Mr Osborne. He sees government finances as akin to those of a corner shop whose outgoings must not exceed its incomings – the difference being that cost-cutting by the shopkeeper is unlikely to affect the prosperity of his customers. Others see the budget balance as a policy instrument which can, if need be, reinforce monetary policy in stimulating or restricting demand.