In July, the eurozone adopted “private sector involvement” – a debt swap with haircuts for private bondholders – as the way to squeeze through the shrinking overlap between the economically sensible and the politically acceptable in the second rescue of Greek public finances. A deadline for non-binding commitments closed last Friday. The question now is whether the exchange will happen before it is superseded by events.
The Greek government has kept mum about how many bondholders actually signed up. Out of all the bonds eligible for the exchange – about €150bn-worth, maturing up to 2020 – Athens has insisted on 90 per cent participation in order to go ahead. It may have achieved 70-75 per cent and it has in its power to strong-arm Hellenic Postbank and ATEBank, two state-controlled Greek banks, into accepting the exchange. This may get Athens close enough to 90 per cent to let the exchange proceed.
What then? Analysts have estimated the net present value of the haircut – debt relief for Greece, a loss to put on the ledgers for investors – at 21 per cent. The face value of Greek debt will fall by less, about 10 per cent. On either measure, the savings are tiny compared with the Greek state’s roughly €350bn of liabilities outstanding.