It is hard to inflate an equity bubble if the market for initial public offerings is not generating hot air. Happily, there are signs that new listings are doing their share of the pumping – in the form of two wildly popular IPOs by leading companies in their fields. Glencore was four times oversubscribed and raised $11bn in London, while LinkedIn went from $45 to more than $120 on its first day of trading in New York. Will the success of these two bellwethers transmit to the other groups waiting to debut?
Globally, there are more than 400 companies being lined up to go public, according to Dealogic data. Running an eye over just the big names reveals plenty of bubble material, especially for those who think commodities (a Mongolian miner, Russia’s Metalloinvest), China (Guangdong Development Bank) or luxury goods (Prada, Ferragamo) will stay hot. Investors can even get excited about combinations of the above (Chow Tai Fook Jewellery). Yes, the next social networking company is not on the list – we’re waiting, Facebook – but for traders happy enough with internet media generally there is always Pandora.
Examine the waiting list in its entirety, however, and it is harder to see much follow-through from Glencore or LinkedIn. While there are lots of commodities plays coming up, there are even more from finance. It will be tricky to generate hype for, say, Spain’s Bankia or Banca Civica. Issuers from America – still by far the most represented country on the list – are largely a humble and straightforward group, from Samsonite to Dunkin’ Brands.