全球經濟

Waiting for the great rebalancing
全球爲何可以實現再平衡?


FT首席評論員馬丁•沃爾夫:全球經濟可以實現再平衡,有幾個原因。其中包括新興國家消費可能大幅成長,而老齡化將導致發達國家私人儲蓄下降。

Pressures are building up for a rebalancing of the world economy. The private sector has long been trying to send a large net flow of capital from the world’s relatively sluggish rich countries to its dynamic emerging ones. But the governments of the latter have resisted, by intervening in currency markets and sending the capital back as official currency reserves. But forces now at work in the world economy seem likely to bring this recycling to a natural end. If so, that would be very helpful, though it would also create new challenges.

全球經濟再平衡的壓力日益成長。長期以來,私人部門一直試圖將大規模的淨資金流從世界上相對低迷的富國送往充滿活力的新興國家,卻遭到了後者政府的抵制,他們通過干預外匯市場,把這些資金以官方外匯儲備的形式送了回去。但是目前在全球經濟中發揮作用的各種力量似乎有可能讓這種再循環自然終結。若是這樣,那將對全球非常有利,儘管也會帶來新的挑戰。

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