The Federal Reserve’s governors are trying to tell investors something. But no one seems to be listening – except perhaps the foreign exchange market. Since the trade-weighted index for the US currency peaked in June last year, amid the Greek crisis, it has been a one-way downward bet, falling 15 per cent in spite of this year’s alarming geopolitical events. This was not about Uncle Sam’s deficits. After all, US Treasury 10-year yields have scarcely moved since last June, and remain historically low, while US equities barely underperformed stocks from the rest of the world.
美聯準(Fed)的理事們正試圖告訴投資者些什麼，只是似乎無人聆聽——或許除了外匯市場。美元貿易加權指數自去年6月希臘危機期間見頂以來一路下跌，儘管今年發生了一些驚心動魄的地緣政治事件，跌幅仍達到15%。原因並不在於美國的財政赤字。畢竟，10年期美國國債的收益率從去年6月以來幾乎一動不動，一直保持在歷史低位，而美國股市的表現與其他地區相比也談不上遜色。