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The ‘grand bargain’ is just a start

Will the eurozone survive its crisis? That was the question I raised three weeks ago. My answer was: yes. My argument was that economic self-interest and political will would combine to preserve the common currency, in spite of the difficulties.

Yet that raises a further question: have leaders now done enough to put the eurozone on a sound footing? The answer is: no. Progress has indeed been made. But more will be needed, both intellectually and institutionally. Evidently, I am assuming that further shocks will compel further reforms. That is my judgment. It cannot be a certainty.

The euro is a unique project. For sovereign states to share a currency demands solidarity and discipline. The more diverse are the component economies and the more divergent is their performance, the greater is the need for solidarity and the smaller is its likely supply. So it has proved. I was one of the many who believed that a stronger political union and greater economic flexibility would be needed if the eurozone was to survive in the long run. Only in a crisis would it become clear whether the conditions for survival would be met. This crisis provides the test.

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馬丁•沃爾夫

馬丁•沃爾夫(Martin Wolf) 是英國《金融時報》副主編及首席經濟評論員。爲嘉獎他對財經新聞作出的傑出貢獻,沃爾夫於2000年榮獲大英帝國勳爵位勳章(CBE)。他是牛津大學納菲爾德學院客座研究員,並被授予劍橋大學聖體學院和牛津經濟政策研究院(Oxonia)院士,同時也是諾丁漢大學特約教授。自1999年和2006年以來,他分別擔任達佛斯(Davos)每年一度「世界經濟論壇」的特邀評委成員和國際傳媒委員會的成員。2006年7月他榮獲諾丁漢大學文學博士;在同年12月他又榮獲倫敦政治經濟學院科學(經濟)博士榮譽教授的稱號。

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