Economists are learning from the financial crisis, but investors should not relax. The gaps in the profession’s knowledge were well explained in the International Monetary Fund’s harsh assessment of its own intellectual shortcomings before 2007. The list is daunting: excessive trust in both financial markets and the new techniques of financial risk-spreading, an inadequate understanding of how finance influences the real economy, and an over-reliance on models “as the only valid tool to analyse economic circumstances that are too complex for modelling”.
經濟學家正在吸取金融危機的教訓，但投資者不應該放鬆。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)對自身2007年前知識缺陷所做的嚴厲評估，充分說明了專業知識的不足。評估中列舉的問題令人生畏：過分信任金融市場和分散金融風險的新技術；對金融對實體經濟的影響了解不足；過度依賴模型，「把它作爲分析經濟環境的唯一有效工具，而經濟環境有時過於複雜，無法建立模型」。
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