At some point, perhaps when China becomes the world’s largest economy, the term “emerging market” may become redundant, gone the way of the Asian Tigers. Investors need to position themselves for this economic tsunami, or be overwhelmed by it.
By 2050, HSBC predicts, 19 of the world’s 30 largest economies will be emerging markets. Their collective economic output, of about $55,000bn, will be greater than that of their developed-world peers. The world leaders will include not just China, India and Brazil but Mexico, Egypt and Iran. If all goes to plan, these will displace small, rich, ageing European economies such as Sweden and Denmark.
There is much guesswork involved in futurology, and studies like HSBC’s are invariably rosier the further out they look. The real worth of predictions is not whether they are accurate – who knows? – but whether they are interesting. The conclusions seem at least plausible. Economic governance and monetary stability are improving across emerging markets, while demographics and trends in education and health are working in their favour. These are the key drivers of economic growth.
