專欄中國外交

South has few cards to play as North Korea ups the ante

Kim Jong-il is sick, isolated and in the midst of one of the most risky ventures of his life – handing over power to his untested, 27-year-old son. He has few cards in his hand, but this week he played two of them. And, in the twisted logic of Pyongyang poker, they were both aces.

The first was to reveal to the world what Siegfried Hecker, a visiting US nuclear scientist, described as “an astonishingly modern” uranium enrichment facility with at least 1,000 centrifuges. Washington had long suspected Mr Kim had such a facility, but no proof. Imagine its surprise to discover that it was right under its nose. The sparkling centrifuges were close to a disabled plutonium reactor at Yongbyon, a site intensely monitored by US satellites. Victor Cha, a former US national security adviser, described the failure of US intelligence as one’s “worst nightmare”.

The second ace – hardly subtle, but no less effective for that – was played on Tuesday afternoon. North Korea’s military launched an artillery barrage against a South Korean island, killing two troops, and injuring several civilians and troops.

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戴維•皮林

戴維•皮林(David Pilling)現爲《金融時報》非洲事務主編。先前他是FT亞洲版主編。他的專欄涉及到商業、投資、政治和經濟方面的話題。皮林1990年加入FT。他曾經在倫敦、智利、阿根廷工作過。在成爲亞洲版主編之前,他擔任FT東京分社社長。

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