Sometimes the most obvious trades are the best. An investor buying the Hang Seng Property Index at the beginning of this year, reasoning that prices would be buoyed by strong Chinese demand and ultra-low interest rates imported through the US dollar peg, would be sitting on a 17 per cent gain. If that same investor then sold Shanghai property stocks, on the understanding that Beijing would intensify measures to keep prices in check, he or she would have dodged a 25 per cent fall, nearly three times worse than the benchmark.
有時候,最明擺着的交易就是最好的交易。如果一名投資者認定香港房價將受到中國強勁需求和聯繫匯率制導致的超低利率的提振,而在今年年初買入恆生地產指數,今天將坐收17%的漲幅。同樣是這名投資者,如果他或她認定中國政府將強化措施抑制房價,而拋出上海股市的地產股,將因此躲過25%的跌幅(比大盤跌幅高出近3倍)。