With the first purely electric vehicles (EVs) about to become available in the land of the automobile, a harsh dose of reality is creeping into expectations. Notwithstanding General Motors’ embarrassing “Volte-face” as it emerged the vehicle it is launching next month is not entirely electrically driven, the real concerns are cost and infrastructure.
Using hybrid vehicle sales, which doubled over four years to 3 per cent of the US market, as a template for pure EVs fails to appreciate the challenge for cars with no internal combustion whatsoever. Nissan and Renault chief Carlos Ghosn’s 2009 prediction that 10 per cent of global car sales will be electric by 2020 was recently tempered by Daimler’s Dieter Zetsche, who says that combined hybrid and electric vehicles may be between 1 and 5 per cent of global sales by 2020.
A case of sour grapes from a laggard? Hardly. Mr Zetsche made the comments in China while discussing a partnership with Chinese EV pioneer BYD. Market research also supports Mr Zetsche’s estimate. For example, a consumer survey by Deloitte Consulting found that 70 per of potential US buyers would require a 300-mile range before buying an EV while nearly two-thirds lack home charging facilities. Taking all this into account and assuming a big drop in battery costs, it predicts 3.1 per cent US penetration by 2020.
