Jobs are the trump card. US politicians say that Chinese exports are unfairly putting Americans out of work. Chinese leaders respond that, were the renminbi to rise, they would have their own employment emergency. “Many of our exporting companies would have to close down, migrant workers would have to return to their villages,” Wen Jiabao argued last week.
So it’s worth noting that China has been rather inefficient at creating domestic jobs. According to the following graph from Morgan Stanley, new employment in the country has lagged behind that of other Asian economies - even though Chinese GDP has grown far faster.
Between 1990 and 2010, GDP growth averaged a formidable 10.5 per cent a year but employment growth was just 1 per cent. Over the past decade, the less dynamic economies of Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and India have seen greater jobs growth.