Two years after the fall of Lehman Brothers, and a massive bank bail-out agreed by European governments, the eurozone’s financial sector is still fragile. As we have seen in recent weeks, the Irish banking sector is insolvent, and there are questions about the capacity of the Irish state to absorb those losses. Jürgen Stark, in charge of the monetary policy section of the European Central Bank, last week raised questions about the solvency of the German banking sector. Wherever you look, two years have passed and nothing has been resolved. There has been lots of activity – bail-outs, bad banks – but no resolution. It was always clear that this wait-and-see approach would eventually backfire. It may be happening already.
兩年前，雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒閉，歐洲各國政府一致決定對銀行業進行大規模紓困；兩年後，歐元區金融業依舊弱不禁風。正如我們近幾周來所看到的，愛爾蘭銀行業已失去償債能力，同時人們還懷疑愛爾蘭政府是否有能力消化這些損失。掌管歐洲央行(ECB)貨幣政策部門的于爾根•斯塔克(Jürgen Stark)日前還對德國銀行業的償債能力提出了質疑。放眼歐洲各地，你會發現，兩年來任何問題都未得到解決。場面確實很熱鬧（又是紓困，又是分拆出「壞銀行」），但沒有解決任何事。有一點始終是很清楚的：這種等待和觀望戰略終有一日會收到相反的效果。這種反效果可能已經顯現。