Did the long-term health of US government finances improve or deteriorate in the past year? Leaf through an analysis from the
non-partisan Congressional Budget Office and it is possible to answer either way: the baseline scenario is better but the “alternative” scenario is far worse. The mixed message is a reminder that the US economy has problems that economists are currently ill-equipped to solve.
Consider the fiscal multiplier, a measure of the effects of government stimulus. In a paper presented at the Jackson Hole get-together for central bankers, Eric Leeper contrasts
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