Three months ago, about half a year late but moving fast, the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund punted €130bn on averting default in Greece. The first-quarter results are in, and the management is performing pretty well. But the country needs to grow as well as cut costs, and sales are not looking great.
The most likely outcome by far is still that Greece will have to reduce the net present value of its debt in a restructuring, probably some time next year. In the meantime, oddly enough, the best course is to keep going and pretend it won’t happen.
The European Union and IMF’s first review of the programme said that the fiscal conditions were largely on track. Greece is attempting a pretty much unprecedented tightening equivalent to around 16 percentage points of gross domestic product in a few years, and it has at least gone off in the right direction.