If you’ve been paying attention you’ll know that RMB now stands for Ronald McDonald Bonds. This month, the American hamburger chain became the first non-financial foreign company to issue debt denominated in the Chinese currency. The exercise raised a tiny RMB200m, or $29m if you still think in passé American-dollar terms. But it follows a flurry (should that be a McFlurry?) of offshore renminbi activity centred on Hong Kong. That has led some to believe that Beijing has started an experiment whose eventual aim is internationalisation of the renminbi and its establishment as a reserve currency to compete with the dollar.
That would be an enormous leap for a currency that is not yet convertible. We are nowhere near there yet. But something is stirring. In mid-2009, Beijing launched a pilot scheme, since expanded, to allow trade to be settled in renminbi. Last month, it took another step by allowing offshore banks to transfer renminbi among themselves, opening the way for the creation of renminbi-denominated financial products such as mutual funds. A few days ago, in potentially the most important change, it allowed offshore banks and central banks to invest in China’s interbank bond market.
The last two measures give companies a decent reason to accept payment in renminbi. Before, there was really nothing they could do with the Chinese currency save stick it in the bank at paltry interest rates and hope to gain through appreciation. Now they can invest it, more companies may take the plunge. Julia Leung, Hong Kong’s undersecretary for financial services, predicts a “dramatic expansion” in the amount of renminbi circulating outside China. If the offshore renminbi market takes off, Hong Kong stands to play a similar role to that of London in the Eurodollar market for dollars circulating outside the US.