With the current extreme price increases for wheat, we are observing potentially the early stages of another global food-price crisis. Even if this does not evolve into something as dramatic as the crisis of 2007-08, when prices of major agricultural commodities from corn to rice shot up to record levels, triggering food riots from Bangladesh to Haiti, it is a stark indication of the perilous state of the world food market. Some lessons have been learned from 2008, but too little has been done to prevent future crises. In particular the malfunctioning of world grain markets has not been addressed – a failure now haunting world markets. The fixing of international food prices today is the result of three forces: expectations on future supply and demand; the growing role of speculators in commodity markets, and the importance of food prices for political stability in countries such as Egypt. Today, low-income countries and the poor are actually more vulnerable than before the last food crisis.
面對目前小麥價格的極端上漲，我們可能正處於又一場全球糧食價格危機的初期階段。即便此次不會演變成2007年至2008年那種引人矚目的糧食危機——當時從玉米到大米，主要農產品價格均飆升至創紀錄水準，引發了從孟加拉到海地等國的糧食騷亂——但這絕對錶明全球食品市場正處於危險狀態。我們從2008年的危機中吸取了一些教訓，但在防範未來危機方面做的太少，特別是全球糧食市場失靈的問題未得到解決，這一失誤眼下正困擾著全球市場。目前，全球糧食價格的確定取決於三大因素：對未來供求的預期；大宗商品市場投機者的影響力日益增強；以及食品價格對埃及等國政治穩定的重要性。如今，低收入國家和貧困人口，實際上比上一次糧食危機之前更爲脆弱。