Fossicking for gold involves sifting through vast amounts of dirt for a few grammes of precious metal. Comparing the effort and end product can prompt the response: “Is that it?” Weak retail sales figures for the US economy, released yesterday, have a similar effect.
Retail sales fell 1.2 per cent in May compared with the previous month, the first such decline since September last year. Economists had forecast a small increase, and while the shock was balanced by a slighter better than expected University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment, the outlook remains poor. Excluding volatile components of the retail data such as sales for petrol, cars and food, core sales for the past two months were much weaker than the preceding two, notes High Frequency Economics. Consumer confidence tends to lag behind moves in the stock market, suggesting weakness ahead, and the outlook component of the index anyway is consistent with real consumption growth of only around 2 per cent.
What mountains have been moved to encourage spending though. Interest rates have been near zero for 18 months. The government poured $787bn of stimulus funds into the economy. Clunkers were swapped for cash, and subsidies slapped on energy-efficient appliances. It is hard to avoid the conclusion, however, that such efforts simply shift demand temporarily forward. The housing market, looking unsteady after the expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit, is a case in point.