The euro-denominated sovereign bond market is a mess. Since the birth of the single currency, investors have treated this €7,300bn behemoth as a homogenous, highly rated entity. They merrily drove spreads down as if there were no material difference in the creditworthiness of Germany and Greece. Yet the underlying economies were diverging. The reversal of spreads recently looks like a belated acceptance that the punt on convergence was a mistake.
歐元計價的主權債券市場一片混亂。自這個單一貨幣體系誕生以來,投資者一直將這個總經濟規模達7.3兆歐元的巨無霸視爲一個同質的高評級實體。他們愉快地將利差降了下來,就好像德國和希臘的信用水準並無實質差異一般。然而,各國的經濟狀況畢竟千差萬別。最近利差的擴大趨勢看起來像是對這樣一個事實遲到的認可:下注於趨同是一個錯誤。
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