觀點通膨

INFLATION MUST NOT BECOME A MOVING TARGET
不要輕易調整通膨目標


FT專欄作家沃爾夫岡•明肖:IMF的一份檔案提議,各央行應將通膨目標從2%提高至4%。經濟學家們的欣然接受讓我深感不安。

On February 11, European leaders were discussing the threat of a state insolvency in the eurozone. The next day, a paper co-authored by the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund proposed that central banks increase their inflation targets from 2 to 4 per cent.* We should not be surprised if people who are prone to conspiracy theories are beginning to see a pattern: the world will deal with the increase in private and public debt through default – directly, indirectly through inflation, or both. I myself do not believe that this is how debt reduction will in fact happen. But I am concerned by the readiness of macroeconomists to embrace higher inflation as a quick remedy.

2月11日,歐洲領導人還在商討某個歐元區國家無力償債的威脅。第二天,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)首席經濟學家參與執筆的一份檔案便提議,各央行應將通膨目標從2%提高至4%。* 如果傾向於陰謀理論的人開始從中看出了某種模式,我們不應感到驚訝:這個世界將以違約的直接方式,或通膨的間接方式應對私人與公共債務的增加,或者兩者兼用。我本人並不相信,債務削減真的會以這種方式發生。但宏觀經濟學家們欣然接受以較高的通膨率作爲快速補救方案,這讓我深感不安。

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