Put yourself in Chinese premier Wen Jiabao's shoes. The rest of the world seems united: your currency is too cheap. For the past year or so, speculative capital has piled in to China on the expectation that the gradual appreciation suspended in July 2008 will be resumed. This hot money, driving up domestic asset prices, is disturbing enough. But given that every foreign government minister you bump into this year will be banging on about “imbalances” – a trade surplus approaching $150bn and reserves nudging $2,400bn – probably makes it imperative for you, as head of the body with the final say over exchange rate policy, to do something. But when?
站在中國總理溫家寶的角度想一想吧。世界其它國家似乎已經達成共識：你們國家的貨幣太便宜了。在過去一年左右的時間裏，投機性資金大量湧入中國，押注於以下預期：2008年6月暫時停頓的人民幣漸進式升值將重新開始。這些正在推高國內資產價格的熱錢已經夠煩人的了。不僅如此，你今年碰到的每一位外國政府高官都將喋喋不休地談論「失衡」問題——中國的貿易順差接近1500億美元，外匯儲備接近2.4兆美元——這或許會讓你覺得，作爲在匯率政策方面擁有最終發言權的機構主管，你必須得做點什麼了。但是，時機如何選擇呢？