印度股市

India
Lex專欄:印度股市大漲背後的擔憂


印度股市過去12個月實現了令人矚目的反彈,升幅高達89%。但這並不是說,去年令衆多國際投資者憂心忡忡的業績可信度問題突然消失了。

A year ago, the Indian market was in freefall. Investor confidence in the quality of corporate information had collapsed in the wake of the Satyam accounting fraud. Twelve months on, stocks have recovered spectacularly, bouncing 89 per cent. But it is not as if all the quality of earnings issues that worried so many international investors last year have suddenly disappeared. Many of the concerns over the book-keeping behind the almost six-fold increase in corporate profits between 2003 and 2008 are still lingering in the back of fund managers' minds. According to a study by Moody's Investors Service, 17 of the 30 constituent companies in India's benchmark Sensex index are family-controlled. They are the most vulnerable to such suspicions. The extent to which artful book-keeping remains prevalent at some of these tightly held groups is a subject of perennial speculation.

一年前,印度股市一落千丈。在薩蒂揚公司(Satyam)的會計欺詐醜聞後,投資者對印度企業資訊的可信性徹底喪失了信心。12個月之後,印度股市實現了令人矚目的反彈,升幅高達89%。但這並不是說,去年令衆多國際投資者憂心忡忡的業績可信度問題突然消失了。印度企業的利潤在2003年至2008年間幾乎成長了5倍,對於這種成績是怎麼計算出來的,基金經理們內心深處的擔憂仍揮之不去。穆迪投資者服務公司(Moody's Investors Service)的研究報告顯示,印度基準Sensex指數的30家成分股公司中,有17家爲家族所有。它們是最容易受到猜疑的公司。在這些受到牢牢掌控的家族企業中,蓄意操縱簿記的情況有多麼普遍,長期以來一直是人們猜測的話題。

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