Even shoeshine boys warn about “global imbalances” these days. The truth is that the concept is little understood. In so far as they show up in current accounts, imbalances have actually moderated post-crisis. Time to stop worrying? Not quite. The International Monetary Fund calculates that, as a percentage of global output, the difference between the average current account balances of deficit countries (such as the US, Ireland, UK and Spain) versus surplus countries (such as Japan, China, Germany and oil exporting nations) halved in 2009 compared with the years from 2005 to 2008. That looks comforting. But this readjustment was narrowly focused. Most was due to US consumers saving more in the recession and to falling asset prices. Cheaper oil also helped, both by denting the value of oil exports as well as reducing outflows in deficit countries.
如今，就連擦鞋的夥計都在警告人們當心「全球失衡」。而實際情況是，人們對這一概念卻一無所知。就經常賬戶所反映出的情況而言，後危機時代的失衡實際上有所緩解。那麼現在可以放心了嗎？不盡然。根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的計算，與2005年至2008年的數字相比，赤字國家（如美國、愛爾蘭、英國和西班牙）與盈餘國家（如日本、中國、德國和石油輸出國）在平均經常賬戶餘額方面的差值相對全球產出的百分比，在2009年下降了一半。局面看起來令人欣慰。但這種再調整隻集中在有限領域。主要原因是美國消費者在衰退期間提高儲蓄，以及資產價格下跌。油價走低對此也有幫助，它既降低了石油出口的價值，又減少了赤字國家的資金外流額。