It was barely 10 years ago that a well-reasoned cover story in The Economist told us we were “drowning in oil” and that its price could drop by more than half to $5 a barrel. As everybody now knows, prices rose tenfold before peaking last summer. There are just so many moving parts to the energy market that making forecasts is a mug's game. If exhaustive detail is a measure of credibility, though, few sources equal the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook, published yesterday.
就在10年前，《經濟學人》(The Economist)上一篇論證充分的封面文章告訴我們，我們正「泡在石油」中，而油價可能會下跌一半以上，降到5美元一桶。而衆所周知，到去年夏季見頂之前，油價漲了10倍。有太多的因素在影響著能源市場，以至於預測油價成爲一種徒勞的遊戲。不過，如果說細節的詳盡程度是衡量可信度的標準的話，那麼，幾乎沒有什麼資料來源能夠與國際能源機構(IEA)昨日發佈的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)相提並論。
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