There is a pleasing myth about the business cycle. This is that it is just a fluctuation around an underlying trend. Output in a boom is above a sustainable level. In a recession it is below it. Budget deficits in the recession phase can be and should be offset by surplus in boom years. Whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about stabilisation policies they exist in a sphere of their own, and economic policy can concentrate on so called “supply side” measures.
商業週期存在一個令人愉悅的神話：它總是圍繞潛在趨勢而波動。在繁榮時期，經濟產出高於可持續水準，在衰退時期則低於可持續水準。衰退階段的預算赤字可以而且應該爲繁榮時期的盈餘所抵消。無論你是持樂觀態度還是悲觀態度，穩定政策都會固然存在著，經濟政策也會聚焦於所謂的「供應面」措施。
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