What would send markets for a loop? Disconcertingly, it is possibly the event which the world's populations, and its politicians, have been awaiting – a strong and early recovery in employment.

This joyous event would be a problem because it is currently deemed so unlikely. There is a deep split between “bears” who believe the weight of bad debts and the “deleveraging” – paying down debts – that it causes will drag the economy into another dip, and “bulls” who believe that government stimuli are jolting the corporate sector back to life.

But both tend to agree that unemployment will stay uncomfortably high for a long time. The bulls' case is for a “jobless recovery”. If companies start serious re-hiring, then the pressure would become extreme on central banks to exit from the current exceptionally low rates. Such a rise in employment would suggest that there really are inflationary pressures in the economy. Without a long drawn-out period of cheap money from the government, the bulls' case begins to fall apart.

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約翰•奧瑟茲

約翰•奧瑟茲(John Authers)是英國《金融時報》的Lex主編,是全球最具影響力的金融市場專家之一。他於1990年加入FT,曾經擔任美國市場編輯、美國銀行記者和墨西哥分社社長。奧瑟茲畢業於牛津大學,並且擁有哥倫比亞大學的MBA學位。

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