觀點石油

Goodbye crude world
Lex專欄:別了,廉價石油


技術進步使得最近有大量新油田被陸續發現,我們是否該因此調高供應量預期呢?別那麼快下結論。

During the energy boom, oilmen used the analogy of an accelerating treadmill to explain why they were powerless to reverse soaring prices – they were getting progressively less for their exploration dollars. Between 2000 and 2008, spending quadrupled but supply growth barely budged. Meanwhile, fresh demand from the developing world gobbled up what little could be eked out. Since about half of the world's oil production comes from slowly-declining giant and supergiant fields and about a third from those discovered prior to the 1970s, more and more small, complex fields would have to be exploited just to maintain output.

在能源熱潮期,石油業高階主管們用不斷加速的跑步機打比方,來解釋爲何他們對於扭轉油價飈升的趨勢無能爲力——同等開發成本能開採到的石油越來越少。在2000年至2008年期間,開採支出增加了3倍,但供應量成長幾乎原地未動。與此同時,好不容易增加的少量供應也被來自發展中國家的新需求一搶而空。由於全球近半數的石油產出來自於儲量慢慢減少的巨型和超巨型油田,而且近三分之一來自於上世紀70年代前發現的油田,因此,爲了維持產量,將不得不開採越來越多複雜的小型油田。

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