From the beginning of the credit crisis and ensuing recession, it has become conventional wisdom that “no one saw this coming”. Anatole Kaletsky wrote in the The Times of “those who failed to foresee the gravity of this crisis” – a group that included “almost every leading economist and financier in the world”. Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said: “I do not know anyone who predicted this course of events. But it has occurred, it has implications, and so we must reflect on it.” We must indeed.
從信貸危機開始到隨後的經濟衰退，人們已經習慣性地認爲「沒有人預見到此次危機的到來」。阿納托爾•凱勒特斯蓋(Anatole Kaletsky)在《泰晤士報》(The Times)描寫了「那些未能預見到這場危機嚴重性的人」——其中包含了「世界上幾乎每一位主要的經濟學家和金融家」。澳洲央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)行長格蘭•斯蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)說：「我認識的人中，沒有人預測到這一系列事件。但它們發生了，而且產生了影響，所以，我們必須反思。」我們的確應該反思。