China's build-up of increasingly advanced short-range missiles near the Taiwan Strait “calls into question Washington's ability to credibly serve as guarantor of Taiwan's security”, according to a report by a global policy think-tank.
A report released last week by the Rand Corporation said China was increasing both the number and quality of its short-range ballistic missiles, about 1,000 of which were deployed near the strait. The growing sophistication and accuracy of the missiles meant that, by 2013, China would need to launch just 240 missiles to disable Taiwan's entire airforce temporarily.
This, combined with the fact that Taiwan was much closer to China than the nearest US bases in Okinawa, Japan, meant the air war for Taiwan could “essentially be over before much of [Taiwan and the US] air forces have even fired a shot”, the report said.