On Wednesday last week, yields on 10-year US Treasuries – generally seen as the benchmark for long-term interest rates – rose above 3.73 per cent. Once upon a time that would have been considered rather low. But the financial crisis has changed all that: at the end of last year, the yield on the 10-year fell to 2.06 per cent. In other words, long-term rates have risen by 167 basis points in the space of five months. In relative terms, that represents an 81 per cent jump.
Most commentators were unnerved by this development, coinciding as it did with warnings about the fiscal health of the US. For me, however, it was good news. For it settled a rather public argument between me and the Princeton economist Paul Krugman.
上週三，10年期美國國債收益率——通常被視爲長期利率的基準——升至3.73%以上。放在過去，這會被認爲是很低的水準，但金融危機改變了一切：去年年底，10年期美國國債收益率降至2.06%。換言之，長期利率在5個月內上升了167個基點。比較而言，升幅達到了81%。