After the US, the country with the biggest banking problem is probably Germany. Last week the German cabinet adopted a bank rescue plan worth looking at it in detail. If you want to know how long the European crisis will last, this might give you the answer.
The Geithner/Summers plan in the US has two fundamental planks – a strategy to ring-fence structured finance products for which there is no market, and a strategy to recapitalise the banking system. Both seem to be based on unrealistically optimistic assumptions about the economic recovery. And both have been criticised sharply, mainly for that reason.
The German scheme is constructed very differently. It is a ring-fencing plan only and it is voluntary. Under the draft legislation put forward by the German government last week, a bank can apply to set up its own bad bank. A bad bank is not really a bank at all. It is a special purpose vehicle, similar to those off-balance sheet vehicles that triggered this crisis in the first place. The proposed SPV will have a shelf life of up to 20 years. It buys the structured securities from the bank at 90 per cent of book value – the price at which the securities are currently valued on the balance sheet. In return, the SPV issues new debt securities to the bank, guaranteed by the government. So if a bank shifts structured securities with a notional value of €10bn ($13.5bn, £8.9bn) to the SPV, it gets €9bn in good securities back. The state is the guarantor. The idea is to give the banks an incentive to lend again.