SHORT VIEW
短線觀點:日元走下坡路


去年11月下旬,套利交易似乎就已經喪失了對日元匯率的影響力,經濟基本面逐漸成爲日元匯率的主導因素。日本巨大的貿易逆差令投資者緊張,日元匯率除下行以外別無選擇。

Japan's banks did not, as a rule, load up on toxic US mortgage debt. Yet the crisis affected the country deeply. For many years while leverage was easily available, the “carry trade” – borrowing in yen at its low rates to park cash elsewhere – kept Japan's currency cheap. Then, once the credit market turned, bringing the carry trade down with it, there was a prolonged period when the yen functioned solely as a perverse “safe haven”, gaining whenever volatility was rising, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Vix index.

一般來說,日本銀行並未揹負大量美國問題抵押貸款債務,但這場危機仍對該國造成了嚴重影響。在很容易舉債交易的許多年來,「套利交易」(Carry Trade,低息借入日元並把現金投向別處)使日元匯率一直保持在低位。因此,一旦信貸市場逆轉並對套利交易形成拖累,就會在很長時間內,讓日元充當唯一的反向「避風港」的角色——從芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE) VIX指數的情況來衡量,只要市場波動性加大,日元就會升值。

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