ASIAN INTEREST RATES
亞洲貨幣政策迅速轉向


過去幾個月,亞洲各央行持續大幅降息,標誌着政策取向的迅速逆轉,但迄今效果甚微。滯後效應真正的禍根在於,各央行去年年中仍在採取的緊縮政策迄今仍在起作用。

As elsewhere in the world, the impact of this easing has so far been minimal. That is not surprsing given that interest rate cuts usually take upwards of 12 months to take effect. Any green shoots spotted now, such as the recent pick-up in lending in China and India, are probably transitory, reflecting a release of pent-up demand rather than a fresh investment push. Still, as Asia's banks are generally in better shape than their US or UK peers, and less fixated on shrinking their loan books, the theory is that lenders will channel cheaper money more quickly into corporate and household pockets. Asian governments also tend to be more persuasive when it comes to getting banks to lend.

與全球其它地區一樣,這種放鬆銀根的做法迄今效果甚微。鑑於降息通常要12個月以上才能見效,出現這種情況並不意外。目前出現的任何苗頭——譬如,近來中國和印度借貸的成長——都可能只是曇花一現,反映出被壓抑需求的釋放,而非新的投資動力。不過,由於亞洲銀行的狀況普遍好於美國或歐洲同行,而且不那麼專注於縮減貸款規模,從理論上講,貸款機構將更迅速地將較廉價資金引導向企業和家庭。在讓銀行放貸方面,亞洲政府也往往更具說服力。

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