THE COMPLEXITIES OF A MULTIPOLAR FUTURE

Attention has always been drawn to swings in power in times of crisis. The stock market crash of 1929 has often been interpreted as a transition of economic power from Great Britain to the US. Yet one must be wary of interpretations that attempt to reduce complex reality to a simple dynamic.

Less than five years ago, it was virtually impossible to speak about the US without discussing the notion of hyperpower. Today we are faced with the opposite danger; that of devaluating American power too rapidly in view of its setbacks on both Wall Street and in Afghanistan.

A crisis may reveal modifications in power relations but rarely explains them. The relative decline in Wall Street's influence began 10 years ago, as can be seen in the rise of stock markets in emerging economies . The real stakes of this crisis are, from that standpoint, less the decline of Wall Street than the decline of a model of financial innovation and deregulation that led the Securities and Exchange Commission, with the consent of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, to reduce its oversight of the US financial system.

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