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Is the dollar about to take a turn?

If the economy and inflation weaken, the Fed is likely to pause and the US currency will reverse direction
The writer is professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley

The dollar has had a spectacular run, having risen more than 10 per cent against other major currencies since the start of the year.

Actually, not a few governments and central banks would prefer the adjective “disastrous” to “spectacular”. For developing countries, from Sri Lanka to Argentina, the greenback’s rise has made servicing dollar-denominated debts, already a difficult task, essentially impossible.

For emerging markets such as Chile that are not heavily saddled with debts, it has raised inflation by increasing the local-currency equivalent of dollar-denominated food and energy prices. Inflation and the fall in its currency have forced the Bank of Chile to raise its policy interest rate an extraordinary nine times in the past year and now to deploy its reserves in support of the peso exchange rate.

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