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Curbs on Russian exports raise risk of an oil shock and recession in Europe

Threat of stagflation looms for developed world despite countries’ strong underlying economies

The spike in oil and gas prices triggered by the Ukraine conflict and western moves to punish Moscow has raised the threat of the worst stagflationary shock to hit energy importing economies since the 1970s.

Crude prices surged after Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, said at the weekend that Washington was discussing a ban on importing Russian oil. On Monday, US politicians were discussing bipartisan legislation while European officials were devising plans to reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels.

Even without a ban on exports from Russia, the second-biggest crude producer, many experts doubted whether the global economy, and Europe’s in particular, was robust enough to escape a new oil crisis and recession.

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