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Weak productivity and Trump tariffs: the chancellor remains in perilous fiscal waters

Official forecasts show how easily Reeves’ plan could run into trouble

Rachel Reeves insists she has put the UK public finances on a stable footing. But the government’s fiscal watchdog on Wednesday made clear how easily the chancellor could get knocked off balance.

The chancellor’s Spring Statement left her with a £9.9bn margin of error against her “non-negotiable” fiscal rule requiring her to balance the current budget by 2029-30 — the third-slimmest room for error since 2010.

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