Good morning. Here is how much the market discounts what the new president says: speaking at Davos, Donald Trump said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately”. Later in the day, he said he planned to talk to the chair of the Federal Reserve about it. If any other president in the past 40 years said that, the bond market would have had kittens, and it would be the biggest story in the world. But the market did nothing, and the story didn’t make a homepage. Literally no one cares. Email us: [email protected] and [email protected].
Also, for UK readers: the FT’s annual bonus survey is open for entries. It’s anonymous; it’s not just for bankers; takes three minutes to complete; and the findings will be written up in the FT. This year, the FT is asking folks about how pay policies have shifted following the removal of the banker bonus cap, which will mean much bigger bonuses for some, but lower base pay for many others. Click here to take the survey.
Apple sauce
Yesterday we presented a tidy theory of the Magnificent Seven’s underperformance in the past month or so. Considered as an asset class, the seven are the new defensives stocks — companies with great brands that can grow even in a slowing economy. But the market at the moment, far from playing defence, wants exposure to economic growth through cyclical stocks.