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German gloom deepens as Trump tariff threat rattles exporters

Acute vulnerability to a trade conflict could push struggling economy into recession, analysts warn

Germany is reeling from some of the steepest growth downgrades of any advanced nation as economists warn of its acute vulnerability to the trade barriers being planned by the incoming Trump administration.

Economists polled by Consensus Economics expect the German economy to expand by just 0.6 per cent in 2025, down from 1.2 per cent growth predicted midway through the year. It marks the largest growth forecast reduction over the period of any major industrial economy.

The cuts partly reflect concerns that investment decisions are set to be frozen even before Donald Trump re-enters the White House, as companies defer big commitments or even relocate production. Germany’s own political turmoil adds to the malaise, analysts said.

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