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The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy
作者是劍橋大學王后學院(Queens』 College, Cambridge)的校長，並擔任安聯保險和格拉梅西基金管理公司的顧問
National security experts and financial market traders seem to disagree on what will follow the recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel. The question of who turns out to be correct will have significant consequences not only for an already unstable Middle East but also for the wellbeing of the global economy and the stability of its financial system.
國家安全專家和金融市場交易員對伊朗和以色列最近緊張局勢升級後的走向似乎持有不同的觀點。這個問題的答案不僅將對已經不穩定的中東地區產生重大影響，也將對全球經濟的福祉和金融體系的穩定產生深遠的影響。
The notion of a “new Middle East” has often come up in the national security camp’s characterisation of what has transpired following Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria at the start of this month.
在本月初以色列對伊朗在敘利亞的領事館發動攻擊後，國家安全陣營在描述事態發展時，經常會提及「新中東」的概念。
Specifically, multiple lines have been crossed by both parties. For the first time in history, the two countries have attacked each other directly rather than through the use of proxies and targets in third countries. Iran has directed a once-unthinkably large number of missiles and drones at Israel, responding to the Israeli attack in Damascus that killed a number of Iranian senior officials. Friday’s Israeli retaliation came on the heels of an explicit warning from Iran’s foreign minister that it would immediately respond should it be attacked directly.
具體來說，雙方都已經越過了多條底線。這是兩國歷史上首次直接對彼此發動攻擊，而非透過在第三國的代理人和目標進行。伊朗向以色列發射了前所未有的大量飛彈和無人機，這是對以色列在大馬士革發動的襲擊的回應，該襲擊導致多名伊朗高級官員喪生。在以色列週五的報復行動之前，伊朗的外交部長已經明確警告，如果遭到直接攻擊，伊朗將立即做出反應。
Despite all this, the markets’ reaction has been relatively tame and contained. Rather than price the market implications of a durable escalation in geopolitical threats and a fatter tail risk of substantially higher oil prices for long, traders have been quick to fade the initial moves in many asset prices.
儘管如此，市場的反應仍然相對平靜和有節制。交易員們並沒有將地緣政治威脅的持續升級和油價大幅上漲的長期風險的市場影響定價過高，而是迅速淡化了許多資產價格的初步波動。
This includes oil, by far the most sensitive international price, which is today well below where it closed before Iran first retaliated for Israel’s consulate attack. These prices have also failed to maintain their initial move up on the latest news of Israel’s response.
其中包括迄今爲止最敏感的國際油價，今天的油價遠遠低於伊朗首次對以色列領事館襲擊進行報復前的收盤價。這些價格也未能保持最初因以色列做出回應的最新訊息而上漲的勢頭。
This contrast in market vs expert views could have consequences well beyond regional stability. It relates directly to four themes that the IMF identified this week as important for global economic wellbeing and financial stability: insufficient growth, sticky inflation, the lack of policy flexibility and the pressures associated with greater international divergence in economic outcomes and policy setting.
市場與專家觀點的這種對比可能會對地區穩定產生遠超預期的影響。這直接關聯到國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)本週確定的四個對全球經濟福祉和金融穩定至關重要的主題：成長不足、頑固的通膨、政策靈活性不足，以及由於經濟結果和政策設定的國際分歧加劇所帶來的壓力。
While the global economy is able to handle a transitory bump, it is already too fragile to handle a large new economic shock. Specifically, a further round of military escalation between Iran and Israel would undermine already low and fragile global growth, push up goods inflation at a time when services inflation is still too high, and impose demands on fiscal and monetary authorities that have already used up much of their policy flexibility and have limited operating space.
雖然全球經濟有能力應對短暫的顛簸，但它已經過於脆弱，無法應對新的巨大經濟衝擊。具體來說，伊朗和以色列之間的進一步軍事升級將削弱已經低迷且脆弱的全球成長，推高商品通膨，而此時服務業通膨仍然過高，並對已經耗盡大部分政策靈活性且操作空間有限的財政和貨幣當局施加壓力。
Meanwhile, the distribution of this stagflationary shock would amplify the economic and financial divergences that are already imposing some stress on the global order.
與此同時，這種滯脹衝擊的分佈將放大經濟和金融分歧，而這些分歧已經給全球秩序帶來了一些壓力。
First, two of the potential engines of global growth — the already-stressed Chinese and European economies — would be hit relatively hard given their high dependence on imported energy.
首先，全球成長的兩個潛在動力源——已經壓力重重的中國和歐洲經濟——將受到相對較大的衝擊，因爲它們高度依賴進口能源。
Second, US inflation would prove even more stubborn at a time when progress in reducing price pressures has already disappointed this year, thereby acting as a bigger counter to early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
其次，美國的通膨問題可能會變得更加頑固，尤其是在今年降低價格壓力的進展已經令人失望的情況下，這將對美聯準提前降息產生更大的阻力。
Third, the strong dollar would get a further appreciation boost, undermining trade and financial intermediation.
第三，強勢美元將進一步升值，從而對貿易和金融中介產生負面影響。
And finally, with worsening economic and geopolitical situations, risk premia would increase. This would lead to higher borrowing costs than might have prevailed otherwise.
最後，隨著經濟和地緣政治局勢的惡化，風險溢價將會上升。這將導致借款成本高於原本可能的水準。
Such considerations assume greater urgency when factoring in what did not happen in the most recent tit-for-tat between Iran and Israel.
當考慮到在伊朗和以色列最近的針鋒相對中未發生的事情時，這些考慮因素顯得更加緊迫。
Whether by design or otherwise, neither party has inflicted considerable human and physical damage on the other. Also, Iran did not materially deploy its regional proxies in what could easily have been a more comprehensive attack on Israel. Meanwhile, Israel did not go after Iranian nuclear sites in its response. It also did not succumb to pressure from its closest allies, most notably the US and UK, for a greater degree of restraint and de-escalation.
無論是有意設計還是其他原因，雙方都沒有對對方造成重大的人員和物質損害。此外，伊朗並未實質性地動用其地區代理人，這本可以輕易地對以色列發動更全面的攻擊。同時，以色列在回應中並未針對伊朗的核設施。以色列也沒有屈服於其最親密盟友，特別是美國和英國，對其要求更大程度的剋制和降級的壓力。
All this points to a significant shift in the dynamic between these two countries, Most importantly, this has changed from a relatively stable disequilibrium, in which each party refrained from direct attacks, to a more unpredictable and unstable disequilibrium in which dangerous precedents have been set and each side has more reasons to escalate tensions further.
所有這些都表明這兩個國家之間的關係動態發生了重大轉變。最關鍵的是，這種關係已經從一個相對穩定的不平衡狀態轉變爲一個更加不可預測且不穩定的不平衡狀態，其中已經設立了危險的先例，每一方都有更多的理由進一步升級緊張局勢。
When comparing the reaction of markets to the views of most national security experts, I am reminded of the story of the frog in boiling water.
當我將市場的反應與大多數國家安全專家的觀點進行比較時，我想起了「溫水煮青蛙」的故事。
There is no doubt that the latest round of Iran-Israel hostilities has crossed many lines and durably raised the geopolitical temperature in the region. Yet markets seem keen to brush this aside, comforted by the fact that we are yet to reach the boiling point of significant human casualties and physical damage in these retaliation rounds — a point that would cause significant economic and financial dislocations. Given that this is a region that is vulnerable to errors of judgment, insufficient understanding of adversaries, and implementation accidents, that could well prove too complacent a reaction.
毫無疑問，伊朗和以色列最新一輪的衝突已經突破了許多界限，並在該地區持久地升高了地緣政治溫度。然而，市場似乎傾向於忽視這一點，因爲我們尚未達到在這些報復行動中造成重大人員傷亡和實質性物質損失的臨界點，這將導致重大的經濟和金融混亂。考慮到這是一個容易出現判斷失誤、對對手理解不足和實施事故的地區，這種反應可能過於樂觀。