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Happiness, according to some psychologists, is a product of reality exceeding one’s expectations. If so, 2023 has been quite a cheery year — at least for economists. Citi’s Global Economic Surprise Index shows that this year’s projections have been consistently beaten by the actual data. The economic trends that have underpinned this reality also offer plenty of reasons to be optimistic for 2024.
根據一些心理學家的說法，幸福是現實超出一個人的期望的產物。如果是這樣，2023年對經濟學家來說是一個相當愉快的年份。花旗(Citi)的全球經濟驚喜指數顯示，今年的預測一直被實際數據超越。支撐這一現實的經濟趨勢也爲2024年提供了許多樂觀的理由。
First, the international economy has displayed remarkable resilience. Since 2020 it has endured a pandemic, war in Europe and supply chain chaos — which together triggered the highest inflation and most aggressive interest rate-raising cycle in decades. Yet economies have adapted better than expected, and that continued in 2023. In the third quarter the world’s gross domestic product was more than 9 per cent larger than pre-pandemic levels, according to Fitch Ratings’ global aggregate. Businesses rewired their logistics, Europe weaned itself further off Russian gas, and higher rates did not lead to a spike in unemployment. Such durability provides a strong foundation for the new year.
首先，國際經濟表現出了令人矚目的韌性。自2020年以來，國際經濟經歷了一場大流行病、歐洲戰爭和供應鏈混亂，這些因素共同引發了幾十年來最高的通貨膨脹和最激進的加息週期。然而，經濟表現比預期更好，並且在2023年繼續保持。根據惠譽評級(Fitch Ratings)的全球總計，第三季度世界國內生產總值比疫情前水準成長了9%以上。企業重新調整了物流，歐洲進一步減少了對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴，而較高的利率並沒有導致失業率飆升。這種永續性爲新的一年提供了堅實的基礎。
Second, the scourge of inflation is fading rapidly. Global price growth ended last year at 8.9 per cent, and is forecast to drop to 5.1 per cent by the end of 2024. Food price inflation — from wheat to cooking oils — has plummeted, and the surge in energy prices is unwinding. The concatenation of pandemic-era supply chain shocks has also eased. Services inflation remains sticky, but that is down to sturdy job markets and rapid wage growth.
其次，通貨膨脹的威脅正在迅速減弱。全球物價成長在去年以8.9%的速度結束，預計到2024年底將降至5.1%。從小麥到食用油的食品價格通膨已經大幅下降，能源價格的上漲也在逐漸回落。大流行時期供應鏈衝擊的連鎖反應也已經減輕。服務業通膨仍然較高，但這歸因於就業市場的穩定和工資的快速成長。
Third, fears of a “table mountain”-type monetary policy cycle — where interest rates would stay at their peak for longer — are already waning. The major central banks may now cut rates earlier in 2024 than anticipated. That would be a relief for many households and businesses. And although three regional US banks and Credit Suisse foundered in March, the fallout from higher rates has been contained. In fact, this rate cycle has usefully exposed weaknesses, from zombie businesses to poorly capitalised banks.
第三，對於「台山」式貨幣政策週期的擔憂已經在減弱。主要中央銀行可能會在2024年較早降息，這將對許多家庭和企業來說是一種解脫。儘管三家美國地區銀行和瑞信(Credit Suisse)在3月份遭遇困境，但高利率帶來的影響已經得到控制。事實上，本輪利率週期已經有效地暴露了從殭屍企業到資本不足銀行的弱點。
Financial markets have boomed. Wall Street’s leading indices neared or surpassed record highs this month. Even bonds ended the year strongly. And, the chance of a soft landing for the US economy in 2024 — where the Fed gets inflation under control without causing a recession — has risen.
金融市場繁榮。華爾街的主要指數在本月接近或超過歷史最高點。即使債券也在年底表現強勁。此外，美國經濟在2024年實現軟著陸的可能性也在上升，屆時美聯準將在不引發經濟衰退的情況下控制住通膨。
Not all economies are expected to perform well. Economic activity has sagged in Britain and Germany. China’s post-pandemic recovery has also disappointed. But others are showing promise. India, Mexico and Vietnam are benefiting from shifting trade patterns, and investors are keen to boost their exposures to them next year. Prudent economic management also made a comeback in places. Greece’s government debt returned to investment grade status after a decade-long hiatus. In Turkey and Argentina some unorthodox approaches were reined in too. Central banks across many developing countries were also on the front foot in keeping inflation under control.
並非所有經濟體都有望表現良好。英國和德國的經濟活動已經下滑。中國的疫後復甦也令人失望。但其他一些國家表現出了希望。印度、墨西哥和越南正在受益於貿易模式的轉變，投資者熱衷於明年增加對它們的投資。一些地方也出現了審慎的經濟管理迴歸。希臘的政府債務在經歷了十年的間斷後重新獲得了投資級別的地位。土耳其和阿根廷也收斂了一些非正統的做法。許多發展中國家的央行也積極採取措施控制通膨。
Finally, it has been anything but the sober year for tech some had expected. ChatGPT became the fastest-growing app of all time, and the buzz over generative AI helped to propel the stock market. The adoption of generative AI by businesses in 2024 could help support productivity growth, which has shown signs of lift-off in the US this year. Other innovations this year also hold promise. The regulatory approval of weight-loss drugs — such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy — could help to lower healthcare burdens. And, Toyota’s progress on solid-state batteries may be a game-changer for the electric vehicle industry.
最後，對於一些人所期望的科技行業來說，這一年絕非平靜之年。ChatGPT成爲有史以來成長最快的程式，而對生成式人工智慧的熱議則推動了股市。2024年企業對生成式人工智慧的採用可能有助於支援生產力成長，而今年美國已經顯示出了起飛的跡象。今年的其他創新也有希望。例如，減肥藥物（如諾和諾德(Novo Nordisk)的威戈維）的監管批准可能有助於減輕醫療負擔。此外，豐田汽車(Toyota)在固態電池方面的進展可能會成爲電動汽車行業的一個重大轉變。
A bit of perspective is no excuse for complacency. The global economy faces several battles in 2024, from pivotal elections to mounting sovereign debt. But, after this year’s resilient showing, there is every chance that the reality next year will also be better than expected.
放眼未來並不是自滿的藉口。2024 年，全球經濟將面臨幾場戰役，從關鍵的大選到不斷增加的主權債務。但是，經過今年的頑強表現，明年的實際情況也完全有可能好於預期。