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US housebuilders/Home Depot: property paralysis creates haves and have nots

Shares in the five leading homebuilders touch new highs while DIY retailers report sales decline

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has splashed out $814mn for stakes in three US housebuilders: DR Horton, Lennar and NVR. This should not be interpreted as a bet that the deep freeze in US property is thawing. For proof, look at the dip in DIY sales.

A sharp spike in interest and mortgage rates has prompted homeowners to stay put. The supply of houses for sale is low. A healthy market should have four to six months of inventory. At the end of June, the National Association of Realtors said the US had about 3.1 months. Existing home sales, which make up most of the housing market, were down nearly a fifth compared with the year-ago period.

This paralysis has not benefited DIY retailers and home goods related businesses. Home Depot on Tuesday reported a 2 per cent drop in same-store sales in its fiscal second quarter. While better than expected, it marked the third consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline.

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