Winston Churchill is credited with saying that America does the right thing after exhausting the alternatives. Donald Trump has turned that aphorism on its head. In the past 10 days, he has all but incinerated 80 years of postwar American leadership. Those who thought America was a friend or ally, notably Ukraine and Nato, are dropping once safe assumptions to cope with a world in which America is an unabashed predator. Countries that were treated by Washington as adversaries, notably Vladimir Putin’s Russia, are suddenly America’s friend.
There were hinge moments in history when the US displayed its character as global leader, such as Dwight Eisenhower’s repudiation of Anglo-French imperialism in the 1956 Suez crisis, or Ronald Reagan’s 1987 exhortation to the Soviet Union to tear down the Berlin Wall. They defined the world’s idea of America. Trump’s assertion this week that Ukraine “should have never started” the war is the dark version of those. His account of Russia being provoked to invade Ukraine came straight from Putin’s talking points. So too was JD Vance’s Valentine’s Day speech in Munich in which the US vice-president identified liberal democracy as Europe’s real threat from within.
These moments will live in infamy. What do they tell us about what is coming? First, there should be no doubt that Trump’s contempt for allies and admiration for strongmen is real and will endure. During his first term, Trump’s instincts were curbed by the more traditional Republicans around him. Trump 2.0 is the real article. It is entirely possible that figures like Marco Rubio, his secretary of state, or Mike Waltz, his national security adviser, still believe in the US-led alliance that each once championed. Their private thoughts are irrelevant. Each displayed fealty to Trump’s predatory vision of America at talks with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia this week. Ukraine, the subject of the negotiations, was not invited. Nor was Europe. If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.