Last week, I discussed five long-term drivers of the world economy — demography, climate change, technological advance, the global spread of knowhow and economic growth itself. This week I will look at shocks, risks and fragilities. Together, I suggest, all these shape the economy in which we live.A “shock” is a realised risk. Risks, in turn, are almost all conceivable. In Donald Rumsfeld’s helpful phraseology they are “known unknowns”. But their likelihood and severity are unknown. We are surrounded by such risks — further pandemics, social instability, revolutions, wars (including civil wars), mega-terrorism, financial crises, collapses in economic growth, reversals in global economic integration, cyber-disruptions, extreme weather events, ecological collapses, huge earthquakes or eruptions by super-volcanoes. All of these are imaginable. The realisation of one raises the likelihood of at least some of the others. Moreover, known fragilities increase the likelihood or at least the likely severity of such shocks.
上週，我討論了世界經濟的五大長期驅動因素——人口、氣候變化、技術進步、知識的全球傳播和經濟成長本身。本週，我將探討衝擊、風險和脆弱性。我認爲，所有這些共同塑造了我們所處的經濟。